In 2023, we witnessed AI demonstrate its immense power and potential to transform diverse sectors, offering a glimpse into how it will shape industries and enrich lives in the coming years. At the peak of the AI hype-cycle, generative AI dominated conversations as major players across the tech landscape made frequent announcements about new developments. This included Nvidia strengthening its dominance of the AI chip market (stock priced at $195.28 in the end of Jan. 2023 to reach $495 by end of Dec. in same year), intense competition heating up between Google, Microsoft and Amazon in the cloud AI space, Facebook re-entering the AI landscape by open-sourcing Llama-2, and AMD and Intel announcing plans to challenge Nvidia’s market position. Additionally, the AI startup landscape remained very active and rapidly evolving.
As we look ahead to 2024, here we take a pragmatic look at 10 key predictions for where AI is headed next based on today's landscape:
- All large foundation models will become multi-modal, incorporating vision and speech capabilities. We’ll also see increased commoditization of large language models, even among open source offerings.
- Smaller language models optimized for efficiency will gain adoption, especially as GPU shortages persist. These streamlined models will become the new standard for AI applications in business.
- AI agents like chatbots and digital assistants will disrupt more use cases - from copilots in applications to intelligent browser companions. Autonomous agents will work alongside humans in new roles.
- Reasoning capabilities will be the next frontier as large models move beyond pattern recognition to deeper understanding required for complex reasoning. This space is poised for rapid progress.
- As models grow in size, so too will their context windows - some spanning 10,000+ tokens. This will allow more nuanced situational understanding and personalization.
- Competition will intensify around AI chips among giants like NVIDIA, AMD and Intel, alongside innovative startups introducing new hardware. Specialized AI infrastructure will expand.
- With growing data regulation, we’ll see increased sovereign clouds and industry clouds tailored for AI workloads like healthcare and automotive. Privacy and compliance will drive market growth.
- Hype around emerging areas like general AI will give way to more measured, use-case driven development aligned with business needs.
- As enterprise AI projects progress from research to production, machine learning operations (MLOps) will gain momentum as the logistics backbone needed to scale AI in business.
- Societal considerations around AI ethics, governance and safety will remain top discussion items next year amid the ongoing impacts of emerging technology.
As this outlook shows, 2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for AI. From core technological advancements to real-world adoption and governance, impactful developments lie ahead. While specifics remain difficult to predict, one thing is clear - AI will continue rapidly transforming industries and redefining what machines are capable of.